Tuesday, September 1, 2009

UPDATE 2 on Hurricane Jimena and Rocky Point, Mexico


UPDATE Sept. 1, 8:00AM PDT: Don't cancel your Labor Day Weekend plans for Rocky Point just yet. The most recent advisory says there is uncertainty about the ultimate path Jimena will take.

There is agreement that the storm will continue in a general north-northwesterly tack for the next couple of days, but after 72 hours the forecast becomes less confident. The GFDL, GFDN and NOGAPS call for Jimena to turn northeastward across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern USA; the rest of the dynamical guidance either stalls it over central Baja or turns it westward into the Pacific.

Overall the guidance envelope has shifted a little westward, along with the official forecast. After 72 hours the new track comromises between the model extremes by calling for a slow northward motion, with landfall on the central Baja Peninsula in 36 - 48 hours.

I'm hoping that the purple line in this image (the HWRF model) will be the winner, though the blue line (the GFDL model) has been more accurate in predicting the paths of Eastern Pacific hurricanes in past years.

Small deviations left or right of the official track could result in large errors in both the location and timing of landfall.

So, Rocky Pointers, be prepared but don't panic. But do keep our friends in southern and central Baja (and north into San Felipe, too) in your thoughts and prayers. They're in for a rough few days.

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